Property transactions reaction from Phoebus Software

28 November 2025

Richard Pike, chief sales and marketing officer at Phoebus Software, on this morning’s HMRC property transactions data for October:

“The double-digit monthly increase in property transactions in October shows that buyer demand remained strong despite the uncertainty in the run-up to the Budget. However, it doesn’t paint the full picture, as the October data likely reflects deals agreed earlier in the year. Many buyers and sellers have been cautious over the past few weeks waiting to see how taxes and regulations may change, so we’ll have to wait until next month to see how this may have affected activity.

“What’s certain is the smorgasbord of measures announced by Rachel Reeves on Wednesday will affect property transaction volumes in 2026. The introduction of the ‘mansion tax’ will stifle activity at the top end of the market, potentially creating a trickle-down effect, while the changes to the ISA allowance could reduce the flow of capital to banks and building societies, leading to an increase in mortgage rates. Furthermore, she failed to tackle the structural supply issues in the market. The government looks set to fall well short of its 1.5 million homes target by 2029, which could keep prices stubbornly high and limit options for those looking to move.

“Amidst the chaos of the OBR releasing the budget details early, the regulator lowered its expectations for the number of annual housing transactions from its March forecast, driven by past increases in stamp duty, a slight increase in its forecast for average mortgage rates, and the impact of an ageing population moving less frequently.”